Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for KOPPU-15 in Philippines from 13 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC to 16 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KOPPU-15

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOPPU-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (18 Oct 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	-- (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	No people	Philippines
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	231	---	2.2 million	Philippines
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	2.3 million	Philippines
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	222	---	2.4 million	Philippines
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	2.2 million	Philippines
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	222	---	1.2 million	Philippines
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	1.9 million	Philippines
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	204	---	2.4 million	Philippines
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	2.5 million	Philippines
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	185	---	3.2 million	Philippines
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	3.7 million	Philippines
12	15 Oct 2015 18:00	213	---	3.5 million	Philippines
13	16 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	2.6 million	Philippines
14	16 Oct 2015 06:00	213	---	1.8 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.6, 143.1
2	13 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, 140.1
3	13 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, 139
4	13 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.7, 137.8
5	14 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, 136.1
6	14 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.8, 135
7	14 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.7, 133.7
8	14 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.2, 132.8
9	15 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.3, 131.8
10	15 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, 130.2
11	15 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, 128.9
12	15 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.5, 128
13	16 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	37000 people	15.6, 127.3	Philippines
14	16 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	76000 people	15.5, 126.7	Philippines
14	16 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.8 million people	15.7, 125.1	Philippines
14	17 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 3	204	67000 people	37.6 million people	15.8, 123.5	Philippines
14	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 4	213	1.3 million people	38.7 million people	15.9, 122.3	Philippines
14	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	1.6 million people	22.9 million people	16.3, 121.4	Philippines
14	19 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6.8 million people	17.3, 121	Philippines
14	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	980000 people	18.6, 121.1	Philippines
14	21 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20.3, 121.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Philippines	Cagayan Valley
Philippines	Southern Tagalog
Philippines	Central Luzon
Philippines	Cordillera Administrative Region
Philippines	Ilocos

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Santiago	Cagayan Valley	Philippines	City	110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bagabag		249	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Luzon Is Cubi Pt	NCP	unknown
Mrmp		117
Baler	BQA	9	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Baler		Philippines
Casiguaran		Philippines

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Magat	Magat	1983

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Casiguran, Philippines. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2015 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (120 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 16 Oct 2015 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.7
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Debutunan Pt	Philippines	0.7
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Casiguran	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Pasaruboy	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 01:00	Casiguran B	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Dinipan	Philippines	0.4
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Debutunan	Philippines	0.3
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Diniyog	Philippines	0.3
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Tarigtig Pt	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Bugallon	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Wright	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Carael	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Bateng	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Alacan	Philippines	0.3
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Baler	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.3
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.3
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Baloboc	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Canaoalan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Dagupan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Binmale	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Manila	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 21:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Maniboc	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Meycauayan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Tinajeros	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 02:00	Caloocan	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Lingayen	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Labangan	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Damaloguen	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Cavite	Philippines	0.2
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Pamarauan	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Tanza	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Binakayan	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Kilkiling	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Claveria	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Santiago	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Tatabunan	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Narombacan	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Portugal	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Batitgao	Philippines	0.2
	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Namuac	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Bagacay	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Guintampilan	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.2
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Tehero	Philippines	0.2
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Bikal	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Tondol	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Nabaul	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Capantolan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Mangas	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Aringay	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	Amaya	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Libjo	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Caba	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	San Cornelio	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Barceloneta	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Dolaoan	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Babatngon	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 19:00	Bagas	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Agoo	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 21:00	General Trias	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Imus	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Pilar	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 17:00	Polillo	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 01:00	Panganiban	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Panasgasan	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Mandao	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Lucap	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Santiago	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Calutcot	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Rizal	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Daram	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Magdalo	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Miguel	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 02:00	Tandoc	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 02:00	San Vicente	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Punta	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Bitaogan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Caramoan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Guijalo	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Pandanan	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Colongcogong	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 22:00	Sialat	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 22:00	Calolbon	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Manambrag	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 23:00	Gitoma	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Pandan	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Culaba	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Tabojab	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Caibiran	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	San Vicente	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Silanga	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Pagsanjan	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Capitun-an	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Paet	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Bahay	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Igot	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Dinapigui	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Naic	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Cabungalunan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Panukulan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Ngalan	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Buenavista	Philippines	0.1
	17 Oct 2015 20:00	Dingalan	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Bauang	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Baccuit	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 07:00	Palintocang	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 20:00	Barana	Philippines	0.1
	15 Oct 2015 18:00	Balaton	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Alaminos	Philippines	0.1
	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Lucero	Philippines	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 01:00	Garchitorena	Philippines	0.1
	20 Oct 2015 04:00	Bangui	Philippines	0.1
	20 Oct 2015 04:00	Tangatong	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.